在7月初的一项民意调查中，58%的美国人表示，他们认为美国经济正在衰退.S. 美国经济陷入衰退，高于6月份的53%和5月份的48%.[1] 然而，许多经济指标，尤其是就业，依然强劲. 目前的情况不同寻常, and t在这里 is little consensus among economists as to whether a recession has begun or may be coming soon.[2]

考虑到公众的高度关注, it may be helpful to look at how a recession is officially determined and some current indicators that suggest strength or weakness in the U.S. 经济.

商业周期测定

U.S. recessions and expansions are officially measured and declared by the 商业周期测定 Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), a private nonpartisan organization that began dating business cycles in 1929. 该委员会, 哪个是1978年成立的, includes eight economists who specialize in macroeconomic and business cycle research.[3]

The NBER defines a recession as "a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the 经济 and lasts more than a few months." 该委员会 looks at the big picture and makes exceptions as appropriate. 例如, the economic decline of March and April 2020 was so extreme that it was declared a recession even though it lasted only two months.[4]

确定经济活动的高峰和低谷, 该委员会研究一系列月度经济数据, 特别强调六个指标:个人收入, 消费支出, 批发-零售, 工业生产, 还有两个就业指标. Because official data is typically reported with a delay of a month or two — and patterns may be clear only in hindsight — it generally takes some time before the committee can identify a peak or trough. Some short recessions (including the 2020 downturn) were over by the time they were officially announced.[5]

强大的就业

过去几个月，经济数据喜忧参半. Consumer spending declined in May when adjusted for inflation but bounced back in June.[6] Retail sales were strong in June, but manufacturing output dropped for a second month.[7] 最强劲、最稳定的数据是就业数据. The 经济 added 372,000 jobs in June, the third consecutive month of gains in that range. 非农就业总数现在只有0.比大流行前水平低3%, and private-sector employment is actually higher (offset by losses in government employment).[8]

失业率一直是3%.6% for four straight months, essentially the same as before the pandemic (3.5%)，这是自1969年以来的最低水平.[9] Initial unemployment claims ticked up slightly in mid-July but remained near historic lows.[10] 在二战后的12次经济衰退中, 失业率一直在上升, 中位数增加了3.5个百分点.[11]

GDP负增长

One common definition of a recession is a decrease in real gross domestic product (GDP) for two consecutive quarters, 目前的情况符合这一标准. 实际(经通胀调整的)GDP以每年1%的速度下降.2022年第一季度增长6%，2022年第一季度增长6%.第二季度增长9%.[12] 因为GDP是按季度报告的, the NBER committee cannot use it to measure monthly economic activity, but the committee does look at it for defining recessions more broadly.

自1948年以来，美国一直在.S. 经济 has never experienced two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth without a recession being declared. 然而, 目前的情况可能是个例外, due to the strong employment market and some anomalies in the GDP data.[13]

第一季度国内生产总值(GDP)出现负增长，主要是由于创纪录的美国失业率.S. trade deficit, as businesses and consumers bought more imported goods to satisfy demand. 这是经济强劲而非疲软的迹象. Consumer spending and business investment — the two most important components of GDP — both increased for the quarter.[14]

Initial second-quarter GDP data showed a strong positive trade balance but slower growth in 消费支出, with an increase in spending on services and a decrease in spending on goods. The biggest negative factors were a slowdown in residential construction and a substantial cutback in growth of business inventories.[15] 尽管库存减少可能预示着经济衰退, it's too early to tell whether they signal trouble or are simply a return to more appropriate levels.[16] Economists may not know whether the 经济 is contracting until t在这里 is additional monthly data.

通货膨胀因素

就业率如此之高, it may be questionable to characterize the current economic situation as a recession. 然而, 就业市场可能会发生变化, and recessions can be driven by fear as well as by fundamental economic weakness.

令人担忧的因素是年通胀率高达9%.6月份为1%，是1981年以来的最高水平.[17] 工资增加了, 但这还不足以弥补消费能力的下降, 尽管就业市场强劲，许多消费者还是更加谨慎.[18] 如果消费者支出明显放缓, 衰退当然是可能的, 即使它还没有开始.

Inflation has forced the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates aggressively, with a 0.50% increase in the benchmark federal funds rate in May, followed by 0.6月和7月增长了75%.[19] It takes time for the effect of higher rates to filter through the 经济, and it remains to be seen whether t在这里 will be a "soft landing" or a more jarring stop that throws the 经济 into a recession.

没有人有水晶球, 经济学家的预测相差很大, from a remote chance of a recession to an imminent downturn with a moderate recession in 2023.[20] 如果事实证明是这样, 或者经济衰退来得更早, it's important to remember that recessions are generally short-lived, 自第二次世界大战以来，平均仅持续10个月. 相比之下，经济扩张持续了64个月.[21] To put it simply: The good times typically last longer than the bad.

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